I’m watching all the entrants into this season’s presidential elections with a dreadful sense of déjà vu. I can already see what’s happening in the republican field: There are literally dozens of potential candidates at this point, but the ones getting the most media attention and the most cash for their campaigns are the most progressive of the lot. Gov. Jeb Bush and Gov. Mike Huckabee for instance. While candidates with much more appeal to the conservative base and tea party types are barely ever mentioned by the mainstream media and seem unable to pull the same kind of donation money. Why is this? Are we to end up with another milk-toast moderate progressive GOP candidate for President? (Think Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Robert Dole.)
While thinking about this, I realized that I could apply my universal rule from Politics and Government Explained. The progressive candidate, if elected, will offer more power to big business and the rest of government. Therefore, it’s in their best interest (if not the countries) to promote the most progressive candidates in the field. A truly conservative candidate might try to shrink the government, lower taxes, give power back to the states or even (heaven forbid) to the people. This is unacceptable to a politician or business that is thinking only about themselves and their power base.
The mainstream media also (being mostly liberal) want the most progressive of the candidates to win the nomination, just in case they win the general election later. The mainstream media is also a “big business” and therefore gain power as the government grows and increases regulation.
So with money and media on their side, the most progressive of the presidential candidates can advertise more, have greater name recognition, go more places and meet more people during the primaries, and so on. Once again, money is power. Politicians and big business support candidates that are more likely to help them in return once elected.
I also suspect that the primary process itself is slanted and structured to give progressive candidates an edge. The so-called “open primaries” in many states and the constant jostling of primary dates for some states probably contributes.
So, based solely on my theory that the thirst for more power by politicians and big business is driving everything, here’s my prediction for the presidential nominee for president in 2016:
Prediction made February 10, 2015.
The winner will be among the most progressive/moderate of the field, currently that would be Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, or Chris Christie. There is always a possibility that someone even more progressive or that has more name recognition can appear from nowhere.
God help us all.
The average American wants to see the government balance its budget, reduce the deficit, slow or reverse government growth, reduce government intrusion into state and private matters, and lower tax rates. Politicians and big business want the opposite because it grows their power.
Guess which we’ll get.